The effect of remittances on poverty in the emerging countries of the European Union

Abstract

In this paper we study the evolution of remittances and risk of poverty threshold for nine emerging countries in the European Union and analyzed the evolution and trend of the share of remittances in the risk of poverty threshold. The analysis was performed on data taken from the Eurostat database for the period 2005-2017. The statistical analysis of the data showed that the evolution of both remittances and risk of poverty threshold was heavily influenced by the global economic crisis. Although after the crisis, the risk of poverty threshold has seen a growing trend in all emerging countries, the remittances have experienced sinuous variations, dramatic declines for some of the countries (drastically for Romania and Latvia) and significant increases for others (Hungary). The results of the analysis using time-dependent regression models lead to the conclusion that, although the share of remittances in risk of poverty threshold diminished abruptly after the 2009 economic crisis, in the short term it is expected to maintain a growth trend for most of the analyzed countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia), followed downward tendency after 2018 for Bulgaria and Romania, and after 2020 for Hungary and Lithuania. For Latvia and Estonia, both quadratic and cubic models estimate a decreasing evolution.