Forecasting the impact of an 1859-caliber superstorm on geosynchronous earth-orbiting satellites: Transponder resources

Abstract

We calculate the economic impact on the existing geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellite population of an 1859-caliber superstorm event were it to occur between 2008 and 2018 during the next solar activity cycle. From a detailed model for transponder capacity and leasing, we have investigated the total revenue loss over the entire solar cycle, as a function of superstorm onset year and intensity. Our Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 possible superstorms, of varying intensity and onset year, suggest that the minimum revenue loss could be of the order of $30 billion. The losses would be larger than this if more that 20 satellites are disabled, if future launch rates do not keep up with the expected rate of retirements, or if the number of spare transponders falls below -30%. Consequently, revenue losses can be significantly reduced below $30 billion if the current satellite population undergoes net growth beyond 300 units during Solar Cycle 24 and a larger margin of unused transponders is maintained. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.