COVID-19, marriage, and divorce in Japan

Abstract

Using monthly panel dataset of prefectures in Japan, this study explored the effects of stay-at-home policies on the flows into and out of marriage. It was found that these policies significantly reduced both outcomes. According to our estimates, a nationwide state of emergency reduced the number of marriages per 1000 population by 10.4%, while that of divorces was reduced by 27.0%. Moreover, the prefectures designated as the special-precautions area suffered additional reductions with 6.1% and 8.9% for those of marriage and divorce, respectively.