Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier

Abstract

Using drone and GNSS surveys, we updated the geodetic mass balance of Glacier AX010. This glacier has the oldest observational record in the Nepal Himalayas, showing mass loss rates of -1.2 mw.e.a-1 over the last 15 years (2008–2023). We reconstructed 80 years of annual mass balance using a mass-balance model forced by calibrated reanalysis data. While rising temperatures drive shrinkage, changes in precipitation have neither accelerated nor mitigated mass loss. The glacier began losing mass in the early 1970s, accelerated in the early 2000s, and is projected to disappear within one to two decades.