#Bitcoin, #COVID-19: Twitter-based uncertainty and bitcoin before and during the pandemic

Abstract

We investigated the differential impacts of a new Twitter-based Market Uncertainty index (TMU) and variables for Bitcoin before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results showed that TMU is a leading indicator of Bitcoin returns only during the pandemic, and the effect of the TMU on Bitcoin’s conditional volatility is significantly greater during the pandemic. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the uncertainty content of people’s tweets is impacted by the highly salient Bitcoin market. Taken together, our results suggest that the information contained in virtual communities such as Twitter have a much larger impact on cryptocurrency markets following COVID-19.