Possible effects of potential lahars from Cotopaxi volcano on housing market prices

Abstract

The recent awakening of the Cotopaxi volcano in Ecuador set the conditions to estimate and verify the possible effects of potential lahars on residential housing unit prices. About 300,000 people live in the Los Chillos valley, which is the northern natural drainage of Cotopaxi's lahars; therefore, the effects on house values can be significant. We have used housing information from 2016 of 240 properties to settle a hedonic price model within and outside of the lahar's area. The regression model has a significant R2 value of about 0.723. The variable that determined the effects of potential lahar on the hedonic model demonstrates that the value of a residence house unit will increase its price by 41.99 USD for each meter away from the lahar path. Our study suggests that environmental disamenities generated by natural hazards will have a negative effect on residential house unit prices and we infer that consumers would be willing to pay a higher price in order to avoid such potential disamenities.