Comparison of Epidemiological Methods for Estimation of Hepatitis B Incidence and Residual Risk for Blood Donors in Southern Brazil

Abstract

Background and Objective . The objective of this work was to compare three methods for estimating hepatitis B virus (HBV) incidence and residual risk. Methods . Computerized blood donor records in southern Brazil were examined for the period 2004–2006. The methods for estimating HBV incidence included stand-alone HBsAg, HBsAg yield method, and an extension of the latter which added recent anti-HBc seroconversions as incident HBV cases. Results . HBV incidences for the above methods were 9.91, 20.09, and 22.93 per 100000 repeat donors, respectively. In the same order, corresponding residual risks were 1 : 62482, 1 : 30821, and 1 : 47559, respectively. First-time donors had 52 higher HBV incidence compared to repeat donors. Conclusion . Although the three methods compared produced overlapping 95% confidence intervals, their variation was considerably lower for the method which included recent anti-HBc seroconversions. First-time donors are primary cause for concern regarding HBV transmission via blood transfusion in southern Brazil.