Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Predicting Occult Nodal Metastasis in Early-Stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Abstract

Importance: Given that early-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) has a high propensity for subclinical nodal metastasis, elective neck dissection has become standard practice for many patients with clinically negative nodes. Unfortunately, for most patients without regional metastasis, this risk-averse treatment paradigm results in unnecessary morbidity. Objectives: To develop and validate predictive models of occult nodal metastasis from clinicopathological variables that were available after surgical extirpation of the primary tumor and to compare predictive performance against depth of invasion (DOI), the currently accepted standard. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic modeling study collected clinicopathological variables retrospectively from 7 tertiary care academic medical centers across the US. Participants included adult patients with early-stage OCSCC without nodal involvement who underwent primary surgical extirpation with or without upfront elective neck dissection. These patients were initially evaluated between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2019. Exposures: Largest tumor dimension, tumor thickness, DOI, margin status, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, muscle invasion, submucosal invasion, dysplasia, histological grade, anatomical subsite, age, sex, smoking history, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). Main Outcomes and Measures: Occult nodal metastasis identified either at the time of elective neck dissection or regional recurrence within 2 years of initial surgery. Results: Of the 634 included patients (mean [SD] age, 61.2 [13.6] years; 344 men [54.3%]), 114 (18.0%) had occult nodal metastasis. Patients with occult nodal metastasis had a higher frequency of lymphovascular invasion (26.3% vs 8.1%; P