Scenario for West Papua contribution for NDC from forestry sector

Abstract

West Papua's tropical forests are one of the mega biodiversity in the Sahul Shelf ecoregion. The increasing economic growth has a déterrent impact on deforestation and forest degradation with the rate increased by 1.29% per year (2010-2018). Meanwhile, economic growth in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) reached 4.87% per year. This study aims to simulate carbon management from the forestry sector in West Papua into the long-term low-carbon sustainable development. This research uses a dynamic system method through Stock Flow Diagram (SDF) stage and model validation. The results showed that the forestry GRDP and emission based on the CM1 and CM2 scenarios calculated using emission reduction of 69.61% and 91.04% were determined by 0.28 and 0.09 times from BAU. The total GRDP and forestry GRDP decreased by 5.19% (CM1) and 6.59% (CM2) and 71.57% (CM1) and 90.93% (CM2). Under this scenario, West Papua could maintain a forest cover of more than 85%. The study concludes that the results of the BAU scenario predict forest cover of 70% in 2030. Simulations carried out with CM1 and CM2 reduction in emissions show that the achievement of forestry GRDP, total GRDP, and emissions is lower than BAU.