Achieving Net-Zero in Canada: Sectoral GHG Reductions Through Provincial Clustering and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative’s Stabilization Wedges Concept

Abstract

The primary objective of this paper is to quantify a realistic pathway for Canada to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This study analyzed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the 10 provinces and 3 territories of Canada based on the emissions from their economic sectors. A time series analysis was performed to understand the trajectory of the emissions profile from 1990 to 2023. Using the 2023 emissions as the baseline, a linear reduction, based on the GHG proportions from each jurisdiction, was performed and projected to 2050 (except for Prince Edward Island (PEI), where net zero was targeted for 2040). Moreover, a machine learning technique (k-means unsupervised algorithm) was used to group all the jurisdictions into homogeneous regions for national strategic climate policy initiatives. The within-cluster sum of squares identified the following clusters: Cluster 1: Manitoba (MB), New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador; Cluster 2: Alberta (AB); Cluster 3: Quebec (QC) and Saskatchewan; Cluster 4: Ontario (ON); and Cluster 5: PEI, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Northwest Territories. Considering the maximum GHG reductions needed per cluster (Clusters 1–5), the results show that 0.309 Mt CO2 eq/year, 5.447 Mt CO2 eq/year, 1.293 Mt CO2 eq/year, 2.217 Mt CO2 eq/year, and 0.04 Mt CO2 eq/year must be targeted from MB (transportation), AB (stationary combustion), QC (transportation), ON (stationary combustion) and PEI (transportation), respectively. The concept of climate stabilization wedges, which provides a practical framework for addressing the monumental challenge of mitigating climate change, was introduced to each derived region to cut GHG emissions in Canada through tangible, measurable actions that is specific to each sector/cluster. The clustering-based method breaks climate mitigation problems down into manageable pieces by grouping the jurisdictions into efficient regions that can be managed effectively by fostering collaboration across jurisdictions and economic sectors. Actionable and strategic recommendations were made within each province to reach the goal of net-zero. The implications of this study for policy and climate action include the fact that actionable strategies and tailored policies are applied to each cluster’s emission profile and economic sector, ensuring equitable and effective climate mitigation strategies in Canada.