M. King Hubbert and the rise and fall of peak oil theory

Abstract

In 1956, American geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that United States oil production would follow a bell-shaped curve and peak between 1965 and 1970. When petroleum production peaked in 1970 and subsequently declined for 38 yr, Hubbert’s model was corroborated, and he was heralded as a prophet and an oracle. However, Hubbert’s peak oil theory was effectively falsified when United States oil production began to increase in 2009 and surpassed the 1970 peak in 2018. A close reading of Hubbert’s analysis reveals that the model was flawed from the beginning, because Hubbert had conceded that the life cycle of a resource would not necessarily follow a single curve. Thus, any prediction of a production history made from a single curve had little to no predictive validity. Whereas Hubbert was celebrated for decades, the Cornucopian critics, who were correct in their assessments of resource abundance, were relegated to obscurity. Hubbert was a brilliant scientist who made significant contributions in several areas, but his views on resource exhaustion were influenced by his ideological beliefs. A false belief in the future scarcity of oil driven by peak oil theory resulted in the misallocation of resources. Bad science produces bad public policy.