Dynamical modelling and analysis of COVID-19 in India

Abstract

We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 in India after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan city, China. We estimate the transmission rate of the initial infecting individuals of COVID-19 in India using officially reported data at the early stage of the epidemic with the help of the susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and removed (R) population model, the so-called SEIR dynamical model. Numerical analysis and model verification are performed to calibrate the system parameters with official public information about the number of people infected, and then to evaluate several COVID-19 scenarios potentially applicable to India. Our findings provide an estimation of the number of infected individuals in the pandemic period of timeline, and also demonstrate the importance of governmental and individual efforts to control the effects and time of the pandemic-related critical situations. We also give special emphasis to individual reactions in the containment process.