Decline in Atlantic Primary Production Accelerated by Greenland Ice Sheet Melt

Abstract

Projections of climate impacts on marine net primary production (NPP) are reliant on Earth System Models (ESMs) that do not contain dynamic ice sheets. We assess the impact of potential Greenland ice sheet meltwater on projections of 21st century NPP using idealized ESM simulations. Under an extreme melt scenario, corresponding to 21st century sea level rise close to 2 m, Greenland meltwater amplified the decline in global NPP from a decrease of 3.2 PgC/yr to a decrease of 4.5 PgC/yr, relative to present. This additional reduction in NPP predominately occurs in the North Atlantic subtropical and subpolar gyres, as well as Atlantic eastern boundary upwelling systems. Accelerated NPP declines are the result of both surface freshening and reductions in upwelling-favorable winds enhancing phytoplankton nutrient limitation. Our findings indicate that including a dynamic Greenland ice sheet in ESMs could have large impacts on projections of future ocean circulation and biogeochemistry.