The rise of the Reform party in Britain—Modeling Reform voting in the 2024 general election

Abstract

In the 2024 UK general election the radical right party, Reform, came third with a 14.3% share of the vote, capturing 5 seats in the House of Commons. This was a breakthrough election for the party, albeit with limited success in relation to the number of seats captured. This paper models the determinants of Reform party voting at the constituency level using Census data to analyze the sources of its support. It examines four distinct but related explanations of Reform voting. The four models can be labeled: anti-mainstream, relative deprivation, identity politics, and democratic dissatisfaction. The analysis shows that they all contribute to explaining Reform support, but dissatisfaction with democracy is marginally the most important.