Forecasting shoreline changes along the Egyptian Nile Delta coast using Landsat image series and Geographic Information System

Abstract

Before construction of the Aswan High Dam, the Nile Delta was expanding and advancing into the Mediterranean Sea. Subsequently, it became a highly destructive Delta due to the lack of sediment discharge, climate change, subsidence, and coastal processes (e.g. wind, waves, tides, and littoral currents). Many coastal structures have been erected to stop or mitigate coastal problems in the study area. We used 31 Landsat images to monitor the fluctuation of erosion and deposition along the study area. The shorelines in these huge datasets were extracted using standard techniques. Linear regression ratio (LRR) and end-point rate (EPR) were used with Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software to determine the rates of beach changes; we then forecast future shoreline changes. The accuracy of the model’s results was checked using the ground field measurements of several studies. This model also creates an estimate of the position uncertainty at each time step. The value of the uncertainty is low (approximately half a pixel) along the shorelines without coastal protection. This study aimed to forecast future beach evolution to the year 2041 to evaluate its sensibility and facilitate proposals for coastal protection for human safety and habitats if the coastal processes and climate change continue to worsen with time.