Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”

Abstract

Twenty-five years ago the first operational, ensemble forecasts were issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. These centres were followed in 1996 by the Meteorological Service of Canada, and in the subsequent years by many others. Operational ensemble-based, probabilistic forecasts signed a paradigm shift in weather prediction: for the first time, forecasters and users could have reliable and accurate estimates of the range of possible future scenarios, and not just a single realization of the future. Today, ensembles are used not only to provide reliable and accurate forecasts for the short and medium range, the monthly and seasonal time-scale, but also to provide estimates of the initial state of the atmosphere, and to generate future climate projections. This article provides an overview on how we developed the early ensembles, illustrates the key characteristics of the seven operational, global, medium-range ensembles, and discusses ongoing trends to further improve ensemble performance.