Assessment of the uncertainty factors in computer modelling of an agricultural company operation

Abstract

The design of management decisions is one of the most difficult and most creative processes in all managerial work. It requires thorough understanding of the current situation and prospects of both the company and its environment. The article considers the problem of determination of the degree of influence of uncertainty factors on the performance of an agricultural company. After carrying out a schematic factor analysis of the financial results of the agricultural company, the authors selected parameters such as crop yields and average selling price, for analyzing the degree of exposure to uncertain factors. Since both the selected parameters are affected by a large number of certain factors and factors uncontrollable for the company's management, the authors find it unacceptable to apply factor analysis to them. Instead, the suggestion is made concerning grouping all the factors on the basis of their certainty and definition of the influence degree for each group. As a result, the proposal was made for the projecting method, such as economic and mathematical modeling, to use the data from both the firm being the subject of modeling, and from the similar enterprises available from the regional Department of Agriculture. In this case, the accuracy of the forecast will be much higher, besides, it can be developed in 3 or 5 probability scenarios.