Associations between individual and balanced team performance and soccer match outcomes

Abstract

This study investigated whether match outcomes in elite soccer are better explained by standout individual performances or balanced team performances across the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, and German Bundesliga (2022–2024). Player ratings from WhoScored.com identified standout performances as players rated at least 2 standard deviations (SD) above their team’s match average. Standout-driven and team-driven games occurred at similar rates (52% vs 48%), suggesting both are common pathways to success. Bayesian hierarchical regression models tested team ratings against goal difference in two conditions: a baseline model (original ratings) and a replacement model where standout players were substituted with their team’s season-long average substitute rating in either home/away matches. In the baseline, team ratings showed strong associations with goal difference (+0.98 per SD), while opponent ratings showed an equivalent negative effect of −0.97 per SD. Replacing standout players reduced these effects to near zero with wide uncertainty, indicating standout performances were central to explaining outcomes. Findings show both standout individual contributions and balanced team performances link to success but highlight the disproportionate importance of standout players. The results have implications for recruitment, player valuation, and squad rotation, guiding clubs in weighing investment in high-impact individuals against building balanced squads.