Going Viral, Binge-Watching, and Attention Cannibalism

Abstract

Binge-watching behavior is modeled for a single season of an original program from a streaming service to understand and make predictions about how individuals watch newly released content. Viewers make two choices in binge watching. First, the onset when individuals begin viewing the program is modeled using a change point between epidemic viewing with a nonconstant hazard rate and endemic viewing with a constant hazard rate. Second, the time it takes for individuals to complete the full season is modeled using an expanded negative binomial hurdle model to account for both binge racers (who watch all episodes in a single day) and other viewers. With the rapid increase in original content for streaming services, network executives are interested in the decision of simultaneously releasing multiple original programs or staggering premiere dates. The two model results are used to investigate competing risks to determine how the amount of time between premieres impacts attention cannibalism, when a viewer takes a long time watching their first choice program and consequently never watches the second program.