Priority areas for vulture conservation in the Horn of Africa largely fall outside the protected area network

Abstract

Vulture populations are in severe decline across Africa and prioritization of geographic areas for their conservation is urgently needed. To do so, we compiled three independent datasets on vulture occurrence from road-surveys, GPS-tracking, and citizen science (eBird), and used maximum entropy to build ensemble species distribution models (SDMs). We then identified spatial vulture conservation priorities in Ethiopia, a stronghold for vultures in Africa, while accounting for uncertainty in our predictions. We were able to build robust distribution models for five vulture species across the entirety of Ethiopia, including three Critically Endangered, one Endangered, and one Near Threatened species. We show that priorities occur in the highlands of Ethiopia, which provide particularly important habitat for Bearded Gypaetus barbatus, Hooded Necrosyrtes monachus, RÜppell's Gyps rÜppelli and White-backed Gyps africanus Vultures, as well as the lowlands of north-eastern Ethiopia, which are particularly valuable for the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus. One-third of the core distribution of the Egyptian Vulture was protected, followed by the White-backed Vulture at one-sixth, and all other species at one-tenth. Overall, only about one-fifth of vulture priority areas were protected. Given that there is limited protection of priority areas and that vultures range widely, we argue that measures of broad spatial and legislative scope will be necessary to address drivers of vulture declines, including poisoning, energy infrastructure, and climate change, while considering the local social context and aiding sustainable development.