Adolescents’ base rate judgments, metastrategic understanding, and stereotype endorsement

Abstract

Developmental reversals are counterintuitive age trends wherein age is negatively related to optimal responding. We addressed the claims that reversals in judgments and decisions are unlikely between late childhood and adolescence. Children and adolescents indicated the extent to which they endorsed stereotypes salient to adolescents, responded to problems in which base rate evidence conflicted with evidence based on anecdotal evidence (i.e., anecdotal problems) or stereotype-relevant evidence (i.e., stereotypical problems), and indicated the basis for their responses. Normative responses increased with age on anecdotal problems and decreased with age on stereotypical problems, indicating a developmental reversal on the latter problem type. Metaprocedural competence mediated the age-related increases on anecdotal problems and moderated the age-related declines on stereotypical problems; furthermore, on stereotypical problems, endorsement of relevant stereotypes mediated the age-related declines in performance. Findings are discussed from a dual-process perspective that emphasizes gist-based problem representations, a “metacognitive gap,” and age-related dissociations between stereotypical problems and metaprocedural competence.