Projected Change—Hydrology

Abstract

This chapter reviews studies on projected hydrological changes within the Baltic Sea catchment area published since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region in 2008. Hydrological impact studies have been carried out in almost all countries in the area. The large differences in hydrological conditions (present and projected) from northern Scandinavia to the southern Baltic Sea area are addressed. The chapter considers the impacts of snow accumulation and melt, river discharge and flooding. Water resources with studies on dry periods and groundwater resources are also covered. In contrast to the first assessment, uncertainty has received significant attention. In contrast to traditional hydrological studies, projections of climate impacts on hydrology are associated with uncertainties related to the models and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios used. In several studies, individual uncertainty sources are quantified and compared.