The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro that never happened: Has the source of the one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century been misattributed?

Abstract

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro in the Philippines is regarded as one of the most significant volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century. Modern databases have assigned the eruption a VEI of 4? and Magnitude of 4.7. Our analysis of historical sources, however, suggests that there was no such eruption in 1831 and that this date is the result of a misinterpretation of a traveller's account which had been taken to be the primary source. We therefore suggest that the 1831 eruption is a false event. In this case, one or more eruptions elsewhere must have been responsible for producing the climate-impacting stratospheric sulphate aerosol in 1831. Our results reveal the need to re-evaluate the hazard assessment of Babuyan Claro volcano and also, potentially, the quantitative treatment of the 1831 stratospheric sulphate aerosol in climate models. The Babuyan Claro example discussed in this paper therefore reinforces a call for the careful analysis of primary historical sources in volcanology.