Impact of COVID-related policies on gunshot wound assault hospitalizations in the United States: a statewide time series analysis

Abstract

Background: The CDC recently reported that firearm homicide rates in the United States increased in 2020, particularly among Black/African American individuals and men 25–44 years old. It is unclear whether firearm hospitalizations also increased, and more importantly, what impact the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-related policies had. Using the North Carolina Trauma Registry, a statewide registry of trauma admissions to eighteen North Carolina hospitals, we calculated weekly GSW hospitalization rates from 1/2019 to 12/2020, overall and stratified by race-ethnicity, age, and sex. Interrupted time-series design and segmented linear regression were used to estimate changes in weekly hospitalization rates over time after (1) U.S. declaration of a public health emergency; (2) statewide Stay-at-Home order; (3) Stay-at-Home order lifted with restrictions (Phase 2: Safer-at-Home); and (4) further lifting of restrictions (Phase 2.5: Safer-at-Home). Non-GSW assault hospitalizations were used as a control to assess whether trends were observed across all assault hospitalizations or if effects were specific to gun violence. Findings: Overall, 47.3% (n = 3223) of assault hospitalizations were GSW. Among GSW hospitalizations, median age was 27 years old (interquartile range [IQR] 21–25), 86.2% were male, and 49.5% occurred after the U.S. declared a public health emergency. After the Stay-at-Home order was implemented, weekly GSW hospitalization rates began increasing substantially among Black/African American residents (weekly trend change = 0.775, 95% CI = 0.254 to 1.296), peaking at an average 15.6 hospitalizations per 1,000,000 residents. Weekly hospitalization rates declined after restrictions were lifted but remained elevated compared to pre-COVID levels in this group (average weekly rate 10.6 per 1,000,000 at the end of 2020 vs. 8.9 per 1,000,000 pre-pandemic). The Stay-at-Home order was also associated with increasing GSW hospitalization rates among males 25–44 years old (weekly trend change = 1.202, 95% CI = 0.631 to 1.773); rates also remained elevated among 25–44-year-old males after restrictions were lifted in 2020 (average weekly rate 10.1 vs. 7.9 per 1,000,000). Non-GSW hospitalization rates were relatively stable in 2020. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic and statewide Stay-at-Home orders appeared to have placed Black/African American residents and men ages 25–44 at higher risk for GSW hospitalizations, exacerbating pre-existing disparities. Persistent gun violence disparities must be addressed.