Performance Evaluation of a New Hybrid Multivariate Meteorological Model Analysis: A Simulation Study

Abstract

Simulation is used to measure the robustness and the efficiency of the forecasting techniques performance over complex systems. A method for simulating multivariate time series was presented in this study using vector autoregressive base-process. By applying the methodology to the multivariable meteorological time series, a simulation study was carried out to check for the model performance. MAPE and MAE performance measurements were used and the results show that the proposed method that consider persistency in volatility gives better performance and the accuracy error is six time smaller than the normal hybrid model.