On the Role of Solar PV for the Energy-Industry Transition in the Americas

Abstract

the growth of solar photovoltaics (PV) in recent years as the largest power source by capacity added, the energy-industry transition towards high sustainability is accelerating. However, the energy-industry systems of the Americas are largely lagging as fossil fuels still dominate the electricity generation mix and the system as a whole. Energy-industry transition pathways are developed for all countries of the Americas reaching 100% renewable energy (RE) by 2050 for all energy and industry sectors. To benchmark the transition to 100% RE, the results are compared to current energy policies across the Americas, representing business-as-usual (BAU) conditions. The results indicate the significant potential to expand RE, especially solar PV, to reach the 100% RE target and fully defossilize each region’s economy. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced from its current level of 71 €/MWh to 24 €/MWh in 2050, and the levelized cost of final energy (LCOFE) sees reductions from 49 to 40 €/MWh from 2020 to 2050. Conversely, under BAU conditions, the LCOE only sees moderate reductions to 43 €/MWh in 2050, and the LCOFE remains relatively stable at 39 €/MWh in 2050. Widespread electrification across energy-industry sectors requires significant expansion of solar PV, which accounts for 78% of all electricity supply, leading to 14.8 TW of installed capacity. Furthermore, e-hydrogen for e-fuels and e-chemicals leads to an electrolyser capacity of 4.3 TWel. The dominating role of solar PV thus indicates that the future Americas energy-industry system can be characterized as a Solar-to-X Economy.