Spatial patterns of malaria case burden and seasonal precipitation in India during 1995–2013

Abstract

The majority of malaria cases in Southeast Asia occur in India. It is a major public health problem in India, which accounts for substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic loss. The spatial distribution of malaria widely varies due to geo-ecological diversity, multi-ethnicity, and wide distribution of the different anopheline vectors. The predominant malaria parasites in India for malaria are P. Falciparum (Pf) and P. Vivax (Pv). This study analyzes the spatial patterns of malaria cases, specifically the two dominant malaria vectors, at the regional level and its relation to seasonal precipitation. The results of our study revealed an overall decline in malaria cases in the later years. The spatial spread of malaria cases was more widespread during the normal monsoon years vs drought years, which can be attributed to more conducive environment for mosquitos to breed. The correlation analysis revealed a stronger correlation between malaria case burden and monsoon precipitation. Spatially, the strongest correlation between seasonal and annual precipitation, and malaria case burden were located across the northern plains and northeast India. The results of this research further our understanding of the relationship between seasonal precipitation and malaria case burden at the regional level across India.