Air Pollution and Migration Intention: Evidence from the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination

Abstract

Using a unique dataset of applicants for the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination (UNGEE) of 76 double first-class universities in China, this paper evaluates the causal impact of air pollution on the migration intentions of highly educated talents by exploiting an instrumental variable approach based on annually average wind speed. We find that a 1 ug/m3 increase in the annually average PM2.5 concentration in destination cities decreases the number of applicants for the UNGEE of elite universities by about 250, but better university quality and more abundant educational resources can weaken the effect partially. A heterogeneity analysis indicates that the university-city choices of applicants are shifting from north to south. Our findings suggest that air pollution may lead to the loss of high human capital.