A Dynamic Model for Risk Assessment of Cross-Border Fresh Agricultural Supply Chain

Abstract

The cross-border trade of Fresh Agricultural Products (FAP) is widespread in the current society, and the demand for it is also increasing. The cross-border fresh agricultural product Supply Chain (SP) itself has strong complexity and high costs, and it also bears many risks. In order to alleviate the adverse impact of risk factors interfering with cross-border fresh agricultural product SPs and improve the overall SP efficiency, this study proposes a system dynamics model based on cross-border fresh agricultural product risk factors. The experiment first studied the possible risk factors in the SP of FAP. After discussing the causal relationship between possible risks, subjective and objective weighting methods were introduced to weight risk factors. After that, a system dynamics model of the cross-border fresh agricultural product SP was constructed for the purpose of enhancing product quality and the overall efficiency of the SP. In the system dynamics model constructed, risk factors are introduced for simulation experiments. It is demonstrated that the suggested model can truly reflect the dynamic changes of the actual SP, and can obtain the operational rules of the system.