Influence of Climatic Factors on Lightning Fires in the Primeval Forest Region of the Northern Daxing’an Mountains, China

Abstract

Forest fires lead to permafrost degradation and localized drought, and regional droughts increase the probability of forest fires, leading to a positive feedback loop between climate change and fires. However, the relationship between fire occurrence and climatic factors change is unclear for boreal forests, which represent the largest land-based biome and stock of carbon. Here, we analyzed the relationship between lightning fire occurrence and meteorological and topographic factors based on the fire frequency, burned area, and meteorological data from the primeval forest region of the northern Daxing’an Mountains in China. We found that lightning fires occurred most frequently at an altitude of 600 to 700 m. From 1999 to 2019, the frequency of lightning fires showed an overall upward trend, whereas the affected area had no obvious change. It can be attributed to fire suppression efforts and greatly increased investment in fire prevention in China. Snow cover had a strong regulatory effect on the start and end dates of lightning fires for seasonal cycle. The frequency of lightning fires was positively correlated with the average temperature, maximum temperature, and surface evaporation and negatively correlated with precipitation and surface soil moisture (0–10 cm). The result will be useful in the spatially assessment of fire risk, the planning and coordination of regional efforts to identify areas at greatest risk, and in designing long-term lightning fires management strategies.