Assessment of medium-range ensemble forecasts of heat waves

Abstract

This study assesses the predictability of heat wave occurrence over Korea applying The Observing system Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data for the Heat Wave Index (HWI) associated with large-scale circulation. HWI shows higher predictability of heat waves than those of maximum temperature (TMAX) and bias corrected TMAX. The verification scores using HWI are compared to other cases of forecasts. It is concluded that the proposed HWI can be useful for heat wave forecasting, which may reduce the health impacts from heat waves through appropriate and timely mitigation efforts.