Hybrid Deep Reinforcement Learning for Pairs Trading

Abstract

Pairs trading is an investment strategy that exploits the short-term price difference (spread) between two co-moving stocks. Recently, pairs trading methods based on deep reinforcement learning have yielded promising results. These methods can be classified into two approaches: (1) indirectly determining trading actions based on trading and stop-loss boundaries and (2) directly determining trading actions based on the spread. In the former approach, the trading boundary is completely dependent on the stop-loss boundary, which is certainly not optimal. In the latter approach, there is a risk of significant loss because of the absence of a stop-loss boundary. To overcome the disad-vantages of the two approaches, we propose a hybrid deep reinforcement learning method for pairs trading called HDRL-Trader, which employs two independent reinforcement learning networks; one for determining trading actions and the other for determining stop-loss boundaries. Furthermore, HDRL-Trader incorporates novel techniques, such as dimensionality reduction, clustering, regres-sion, behavior cloning, prioritized experience replay, and dynamic delay, into its architecture. The performance of HDRL-Trader is compared with the state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods for pairs trading (P-DDQN, PTDQN, and P-Trader). The experimental results for twenty stock pairs in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index show that HDRL-Trader achieves an average return rate of 82.4%, which is 25.7%P higher than that of the second-best method, and yields significantly positive return rates for all stock pairs.