Factors controlling contrail cirrus optical depth

Abstract

Aircraft contrails develop into contrail cirrus by depositional growth and sedimentation of ice particles and horizontal spreading due to wind shear. Factors controlling this development include temperature, ice supersaturation, thickness of ice-supersaturated layers, and vertical gradients in the horizontal wind field. An analytical microphysical cloud model is presented and validated that captures these processes. Many individual contrail cirrus are simulated that develop differently owing to the variability in the controlling factors, resulting in large samples of cloud properties that are statistically analyzed. Contrail cirrus development is studied over the first four hours past formation, similar to the ages of line-shaped contrails that were tracked in satellite imagery on regional scales. On these time scales, contrail cirrus optical depth and microphysical variables exhibit a marked variability, expressed in terms of broad and skewed probability distribution functions. Simulated mean optical depths at a wavelength of 0.55μm range from 0.05?0.5 and a substantial fraction 20?50% of contrail cirrus stay subvisible (optical depth <0.02), depending on meteorological conditions. © 2009 Author(s).