Petroleum refinery greenhouse gas emission variations related to higher ethanol blends at different gasoline octane rating and pool volume levels

Abstract

Refinery GHG emissions were predicted for 10% and 30% ethanol blends at refinery blendstock octanes between 77 and 89 AKI at any gasoline pool energy content between parity and constant gasoline pool volume. Linear programming analyzed how separate E30 blending scenarios of 2017 PADD 2-based refineries affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to status quo gasoline (i.e., E10, 87 AKI and 93 AKI premium). The compliance synergy of higher ethanol blends illustrated here is pertinent to national policy goals and multiple environmental objectives. Study results have implications for CAFE Standards, US EPA Tier 3 fuel standards, and Clean Air Act regulations of stationary source CO2 emissions from refinery operations. Results varied by amounts and types of crude oil processed, refinery operations, refinery gasoline blendstock produced (and fuel ethanol blended), and produced refinery product composition and properties. Significant differences exist in total refinery GHG emissions (including emissions from purchased electricity and hydrogen) with the largest differences from coke burn in the fluidized catalytic cracker and refinery fuel gas combustion principally related to reformer operations. The concept of refinery GHG emissions intensity was introduced to differentiate between differences in refinery throughput (an extensive factor) and severity of refinery operations (intensive factors). Refinery GHG emissions decline 12% to 27% from a 2017 base case for the various 30% ethanol cases, highlighting a significant gap in current life cycle analysis (LCA) and supporting incorporation of this improved approach into LCA related to higher ethanol blends. This methodology can be adapted to other PADDs and/or for the USA.