Retail sales in the downturn: Understanding patterns and trends

Abstract

This article considers the impact of the developing financial crisis on retail sales values up to 2008. It also examines the divergence between the official estimates of retail activity and the British Retail Consortium retailing indicator. It focuses on the value measure of retail sales and analyses recent trends in retailing activity by examining consumer behaviour and other economic factors affecting the value of retail sales. It is the first of two articles on retailing activity in the UK over the last three years. The second will follow later in 2009 and focus on the volume measure of retail sales, including discussions on the impact of chain-linking on the volume series.