A nuclear world transformed: The rise of multilateral disorder

Abstract

The end of the Cold War produced great hope that the risks and dangers associated with nuclear weapons could be minimized or tamed in a cooperative international environment heavily regulated by arms control. If arsenals could be reduced, nuclear weapons marginalized, destabilizing factors constrained or eliminated, and proliferation prevented in a world increasingly governed by negotiated arms control, the nuclear perils of the Cold War would be left behind. Nearly three decades later, these hopes have been dashed. Instead, relations among the major nuclear powers have grown more contentious, the spread of nuclear weapons to new states has resulted in worrying regional nuclear orders, and technological advances are raising new threats and possibly introducing new instabilities, while arms control is in a state of near total collapse. A new nuclear order, combining traditional concerns with distinctive new dangers, is here. The perils of this new and still evolving nuclear reality must be understood if they are to be safely managed.