Are older persons in china living more years in an independent living arrangement? Estimates using multistate life tables

Abstract

Adopting a multistate life table approach, this study estimates number of years the very old in China expect to live in an independent living arrangement (alone or with spouse only)-an estimate we term “independent living life expectancy” (ILLE)-as opposed to in coresidence with adult children or others. We also estimate how ILLE and proportion of total life expectancy (TLE) residing independently has changed over time. The backdrop for this study is a society experiencing both increasing longevity and social changes that influence the tendency to live in an independent living arrangement. The study concentrates on assessing whether changes in ILLE match or surpass gains in TLE experienced by oldest-old Chinese adults. Data are from the 2002-2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, and estimation is conducted using the Stochastic Population Analysis for Complex Events software. Results suggest that on balance, gains in ILLE are proportionately greater than gains in TLE, indicating an expansion of ILLE for most Chinese elders. Males, septuagenarian females, and disabled septuagenarians are the most likely to be living proportionately longer lives in an independent living arrangement. In contrast, extremely old (nonagenarian and centenarian) females and extremely old disabled individuals are least likely to have experienced dramatic changes in proportion of life residing independently. The findings imply some support for the hypothesis that given the maintenance of family solidarity in China, those in greatest need are least likely to encounter the most extreme changes toward independent living arrangements.