Models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on M1, M2 per foreign exchange reverse, and M2 multiplier indicators

Abstract

Indonesia has been hit by financial crisis in the middle of 1997. The financial crisis that has occurred gives a severe impact to the economy of Indonesia resulting the needs for a detection system of financial crisis. Crisis can be detected based on several indicators such as M1, M2 per foreign exchange reserves, and M2 multiplier. These three indicators can affect the exchange rate stability and may further affect the financial stability so that it can be one of the causes of the financial crisis. This research aims to determine the appropriate model that can detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Markov switching is an alternative model that can be approach and used often for detecting financial crisis. We can determine the combination of volatility and Markov switching model with AR and volatility model are determined first. The results of this research are that M1 can be modelled by SWARCH (3, 1) while M2 per foreign research exchange reserves and M2 multiplier can be modelled by SWARCH(3,2).