Key development factors of hydrothermal processes in Germany by 2030: A fuzzy logic analysis

Abstract

To increase resource efficiency, it is necessary to use biogenic residues in the most efficient and value-enhancing manner. For high water-containing biomass, hydrothermal processes (HTP) are particularly promising as they require wet conditions for optimal processing anyway. In Germany, however, HTP have not yet reached the industrial level, although suitable substrates are available and technological progress has been made in previous years. This study aims to determine why this is by identifying key factors that need to occur HTP development in Germany until 2030. By using results of previous analyses within this context (i.e., literature review, SWOT analysis, expert survey, and focus group workshop) and combining them with the results of an expert workshop and Delphi-survey executed during this analysis, a comprehensive information basis on important development factors is created. Fuzzy logic is used to analyze these factors in terms of interconnections, relevance, and probability of occurrence by 2030. The results show that technological factors, such as a cost-efficient process water treatment and increased system integration of HTP into bio-waste and wastewater treatment plants, are given high relevance and probability of occurrence. The adaptation of the legal framework, for example, the approval of end products from HTP as standard fuels, has very high relevance but such adaptions are considered relatively unlikely.