Learning Joint Relational Co-evolution in Spatial-Temporal Knowledge Graph for SMEs Supply Chain Prediction

Abstract

To effectively explore the supply chain relationships among Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), some remarkable progress in such a relation modeling problem, especially knowledge graph-based methods have been witnessed during these years. As a typical link prediction task, supply chain prediction can usually predict the unknown future relationship facts between SMEs by utilizing the historical semantic connections between entities in knowledge graphs (KGs). However, it is still a great challenge for existing models as seldom of them can consider both temporal dependency and cooperative correlation of the connectivity pattern along the timeline synergistically. Accordingly, we propose a novel framework to learn joint relational co-evolution in Spatial-Temporal Knowledge Graphs (STKG). Specifically, on the base of the constructed large-scale financial STKG, a multi-view relational sequences mining method is proposed to reveal the semantic information from ontological concepts. Furthermore, a relational co-evolution learning module is also developed to capture the regularity of evolving connectivity patterns from the spatial-temporal view. Meanwhile, a multiple random subspace representation learning layer is also designed to improve both compatibility and complementarity during knowledge aggregation. Experimental results on large-scale SMEs supply chain prediction tasks from four real-world industries in China have illustrated the effectiveness of the proposed model.