Modeling pathways of riverine nitrogen and phosphorus in the Baltic Sea

Abstract

A better understanding of the fate of nutrients entering the Baltic Sea ecosystem is an important issue with implications for environmental management. There are two sources of nitrogen and phosphorus: riverine input and atmospheric deposition. In the case of nitrogen, the fixation of dinitrogen by diazotrophic bacteria represents a third source. From an analysis of stable nitrogen isotope ratios it was suggested that most of the riverine nitrogen is sequestered in the coastal rim, specifically along the southern Baltic Sea coast with its coarse sediments, whereas nitrogen from fixation dominates the central basins. However, pathways of nutrients and timescales between the input of the nutrients and their arrival in different basins are difficult to obtain from direct measurements. To elucidate this problem, we use a source attribution technique in a three-dimensional ecosystem model, ERGOM, to track nutrients originating from various rivers. An "age" variable is attributed to the marked elements to indicate their propagation speeds and residence times. In this paper, we specifically investigate the spreading of nitrogen and phosphorus from the riverine discharges of the Oder, Vistula, Neman and Daugava. We demonstrate which regions they are transported to and for how long they remain in the ecosystem. The model results show good agreement with source estimations from observed σ15N values in sediments. The model results suggest that 95% of nitrogen is lost by denitrification in sediments, after an average time of 1.4 years for riverine nitrogen. The residence time of riverine phosphorus is much longer and exceeds our simulated period of 35 years. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.