A Multi-Faceted Approach to Air Quality: Visibility Prediction and Public Health Risk Assessment Using Machine Learning and Dust Monitoring Data

Abstract

Clean and safe air quality is essential for public health, yet particulate matter (PM) significantly degrades air quality and poses serious health risks. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are particularly vulnerable to frequent and intense dust storms due to their vast desert landscapes. This study presents the first health risk assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks associated with exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 bound heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) based on air quality data collected during the years of 2016–2018 near Dubai International Airport and Abu Dhabi International Airport. The results reveal no significant carcinogenic risks for lead (Pb), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), and chromium (Cr). Additionally, AI-based regression analysis was applied to time-series dust monitoring data to enhance predictive capabilities in environmental monitoring systems. The estimated incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) from PAH exposure exceeded the acceptable threshold (10−6) in several samples at both locations. The relationship between visibility and key environmental variables—PM1, PM2.5, PM10, total suspended particles (TSPs), wind speed, air pressure, and air temperature—was modeled using three machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM) with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel, and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Among these, SVM with an RBF kernel showed the highest accuracy in predicting visibility, effectively integrating meteorological data and particulate matter variables. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning models for environmental monitoring and the need for continued assessments of air quality and its health implications in the region.