Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission: A Case Study of Housing Densities in Sankalitnagar, Ahmedabad

Abstract

The differential transmission of COVID-19 depending on the socio-economic status of a neighborhood is well established. For example, several studies have shown that COVID-19 transmission was higher in poorer and denser neighborhoods than in wealthier ones. However, what is less well known is how this varied rate of transmission interacted with established health measures, i.e., face masks and lockdowns, in the context of developing countries to reduce pandemic cases and hence resulted in fewer deaths. This study uses an Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulation to examine the context and impacts of COVID-19 mitigation efforts (i.e., lockdowns combined with masks) on the transmission of COVID-19 across a single neighborhood in Ahmedabad, a city in the state of Gujarat, India. The model is parameterized using real-world population data, which allows us to simulate the spread of COVID-19 to find conditions that most closely match the realities of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020. Consequently, the simulation can be used to understand the impact of nation-wide lockdown on the spread of COVID cases across Ahmedabad as a function of housing density. Thus, invaluable insight into the effectiveness of a lockdown as a mitigation measure can be derived. Further information about how the effectiveness of the lockdown varied by neighborhood, as well as other factors that impacted it, can be ascertained.