Numerical prediction of ice-jam profiles in lower athabasca river

Abstract

A recent study of dynamic ice breakup processes and their erosional potential in the Lower Athabasca River concluded that breakup can result in very large sediment loads, which cannot be predicted at present. As a first step towards building suitable modelling capability, a user-friendly, public-domain, ice jam model is calibrated and validated using 2013 and 2014 water level measurements as well as historical data sets by others. The calibrated model is shown to reliably compute the profiles of different ice jams occurring in a 60 km reach that extends both above and below Fort McMurray. The model also enabled development of an ice jam stage-flow relationship for the city of Fort McMurray, which can help assess present and future, climate-modified, flood risk.