Evolution of the Spatial Network Structure of the Global Service Value Chain and Its Influencing Factors—An Empirical Study Based on the TERGM

Abstract

With the rapid advance of digital technologies, the service industry has become a key driver of sustainable economic growth and the restructuring of international trade. Drawing on value-added trade flows for five pivotal service industries—construction, air transportation, postal telecommunications, financial intermediation, and education—over 2013–2021, this study examines the spatial evolution of the global service value chain (GSVC). Using social network analysis combined with a Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM), we assess the dynamics of the GSVC’ core–periphery structure and identify heterogeneous determinants shaping their spatial networks. The findings are as follows: (1) Exports across the five industries display an “East rising, West declining” pattern, with markedly heterogeneous magnitudes of change. (2) The construction industry is Europe-centered; air transportation exhibits a U.S.–China bipolar structure; postal telecommunications show the most pronounced “East rising, West declining” shift, forming four poles (United States, United Kingdom, Germany, China); financial intermediation contracts to a five-pole core (China, United States, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany); and education becomes increasingly multipolar. (3) The GSVC core–periphery system undergoes substantial reconfiguration, with some peripheral economies moving toward the core; the core expands in air transportation, while postal telecommunications exhibit strong regionalization. (4) Digital technology, foreign direct investment, and manufacturing structure promote network evolution, whereas income similarity may dampen it; the effects of economic freedom and labor-force size on spatial network restructuring differ significantly by industry. These results underscore the complex interplay of structural, institutional, and geographic drivers in reshaping GSVC networks and carry implications for fostering sustainable services trade, enhancing interregional connectivity, narrowing global development gaps, and advancing an inclusive digital transformation.