Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Illness and Asymptomatic Infection in 2022–2023: A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background. Previous estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against asymptomatic influenza virus infection based on seroconversion have varied widely and may be biased. We estimated 2022–2023 influenza VE against illness and asymptomatic infection in a prospective cohort. Methods. In the HEROES-RECOVER cohort, adults at increased occupational risk of influenza exposure across 7 US sites provided weekly symptom reports and nasal swabs for reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) influenza testing. Laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections were classified as symptomatic (≥1 symptom) or asymptomatic during the week of testing. Participants reported demographic information and vaccination through surveys; most sites verified vaccination through medical record and immunization registry review. Person-time was calculated as days from the site-specific influenza season start (September–October 2022) through date of infection, study withdrawal, or season end (May 2023). We compared influenza incidence among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants overall, by symptom status, and by influenza A subtype, using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for site and occupation. We estimated VE as (1 − adjusted hazard ratio) × 100%. Results. In total, 269 of 3785 (7.1%) participants had laboratory-confirmed influenza, including 263 (98%) influenza A virus infections and 201 (75%) symptomatic illnesses. Incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants was 23.7 and 33.2 episodes per 100 000 person-days, respectively (VE: 38%; 95% CI: 15%–55%). Incidence of asymptomatic influenza virus infection was 8.0 versus 11.6 per 100 000 (VE: 13%; 95% CI: −47%, 49%). Conclusions. Vaccination reduced incidence of symptomatic but not asymptomatic influenza virus infection, suggesting that influenza vaccination attenuates progression from infection to illness.