Development of an integrated predictive model for postoperative glioma-related epilepsy using gene-signature and clinical data

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop an integrated model for predicting the occurrence of postoperative seizures in patients with diffuse high-grade gliomas (DHGGs) using clinical and RNA-seq data. Methods: Patients with DHGGs, who received prophylactic anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) for three months following surgery, were enrolled into the study. The patients were assigned randomly into training (n = 166) and validation (n = 42) cohorts. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified based on preoperative glioma-related epilepsy (GRE) history. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis was used to construct a predictive gene-signature for the occurrence of postoperative seizures. The final integrated prediction model was generated using the gene-signature and clinical data. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curve method were used to evaluate the accuracy of the gene-signature and prediction model using the training and validation cohorts. Results: A seven-gene signature for predicting the occurrence of postoperative seizures was developed using LASSO logistic regression analysis of 623 DEGs. The gene-signature showed satisfactory predictive capacity in the training cohort [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.842] and validation cohort (AUC = 0.751). The final integrated prediction model included age, temporal lobe involvement, preoperative GRE history, and gene-signature-derived risk score. The AUCs of the integrated prediction model were 0.878 and 0.845 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusion: We developed an integrated prediction model for the occurrence of postoperative seizures in patients with DHGG using clinical and RNA-Seq data. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of personalized management strategies for patients with DHGGs and improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying GRE in these patients.