Use of Satellite Data for Air Pollution Modeling in Bulgaria

Abstract

Air pollution continues to be of concern for Bulgarian cities, mainly due to particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 μm (PM10). There is public and expert interest in the improvement of two operational air quality modeling systems: the Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecast System (BgCWFS) and the Local Air Quality Management System (LAQMS) for the city of Plovdiv. The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of satellite data assimilation in BgCWFS on surface concentrations over Bulgaria (resolution 9 km), to downscale BgCWFS output to LAQMS (resolution 250 m), and to examine effects on PM10 in Plovdiv. Data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) (MetOP satellites) for aerosols, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were assimilated in BgCWFS using objective analysis. Simulation experiments with and without satellite data were conducted for a summer and a winter month. The comparison to surface observations in the country showed improvement of results when using satellite data, especially in the summer due to mineral dust events captured by satellites. The decrease in the normalized mean bias (NMB) over the two months was 43% (PM10) and 73% (SO2). The LAQMS estimated background contributions to PM10 in the city as 32%. The absolute NMB by LAQMS decreased by 38%.