Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N2O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat–corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrification–Decomposition (DNDC) model and proposed adaptive strategies for each climate scenarios. The study showed a good consistency between observations and simulations (R2 > 0.95 and nRMSE < 30%). Among the twelve climate scenarios, we explored ten management practices under four climate scenarios (3 °C temperature change: P/T−3 and P/T+3; 30% precipitation change: 0.7P/T and 1.3P/T), which have a significant impact on crop yields and the net greenhouse effect. The results revealed that changing the crop planting time (CP) and using cold-resistant (CR) varieties could reduce the net greenhouse effect by more than 1/4 without sacrificing crop yields under P/T−3. Straw return (SR) minimized the negative impact on yields and the environment under P/T+3. Fertigation (FG) and Drought-Resistant (DR) varieties reduced the net greenhouse effect by more than 8.34% and maintained yields under 0.7P/T. SR was most beneficial to carbon sequestration, and yields were increased by 3.87% under 1.3P/T. Multiple adaptive strategies should be implemented to balance yields and reduce the environmental burden under future climate change.