White Hydrogen and the Future of Power-to-X: A Policy Reassessment of Europe’s Green Hydrogen Strategy

Abstract

Europe’s hydrogen strategy has centred almost exclusively on green hydrogen produced through renewable electrolysis as the cornerstone of its decarbonisation agenda. However, recent discoveries of naturally occurring “white hydrogen” in France, Spain, and other parts of Europe raise the prospect of a new, abundant, and low-cost clean energy resource. White hydrogen, generated geologically and extractable directly from subsurface reservoirs, could complement or even disrupt the current power-to-X pathway by offering production costs estimated at €0.75–1 per kilogram, far below today’s €6–8 for green hydrogen. Early geological findings suggest potentially vast reserves, yet the scale, renewability, and environmental impacts remain uncertain. This policy note critically reassesses the European Union’s hydrogen strategy in light of these developments, examining the economic, environmental, and regulatory implications of integrating white hydrogen. It argues for a balanced, adaptive approach: continuing to scale green hydrogen to meet near-term decarbonisation targets while fostering exploration, regulation, and pilot projects for white hydrogen. Such an approach can safeguard Europe’s climate ambitions, mitigate energy security risks, and avoid stranded investments, while positioning the EU to benefit if natural hydrogen proves viable at scale.